Seasonal predictability of Mediterranean weather regimes in the Copernicus C3S systems

Abstract Seasonal predictions in the Mediterranean region have relevant socio-economic implications, especially context of a changing climate. To date, sources predictability not been sufficiently investigated at seasonal scale this region. fill gap, we explore using weather regimes (WRs) framework. The role WRs influencing regional patterns climate state has generated interest assessing ability models to reproduce them. We identify four for winter (DJF) season and their looking teleconnections with sea surface temperature (SST). In particular, assess how SST anomalies affect frequencies during focussing on two that are associated which signal is more intense: Meridional Anticyclonic regimes. These sought five state-of-the-art forecasting systems included Copernicus Climate Change Services (C3S) suite finding weaker but an overall good agreement reanalysis data. Finally, C3S reproducing data moderate skill increases ENSO intense years, indicating teleconnection well reproduced by yields improved